The US Election
This blog is about beautiful things—like microbiology—and distinctly not about US politics. But, as a statistics junkie, I found this amusing.
Nate Silver ran 80,000 simulations, and Harris won 40,012 of them. The outcome of this election isn’t a coin flip, it's closer:
From the model’s standpoint, though, the race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent.
We'll soon see if the polls have underestimated Donald Trump again or if, as has been seen in some recent EU elections, they’ve overcompensated.
/g